What are the Odds: Improbable or Impossible?
Ryan Cox • August 2, 2021
What are the Odds: Improbable or Impossible?
At a CTF event, I was asked if the improbability of evolution was the same as the impossibility of evolution. The point was made that an atheistic evolutionist could argue that just because evolution is highly improbable, that does not mean it is impossible. “After all,” the evolutionist could say, “we are here.”
Yes, naturalistic evolution is highly improbable, but can it be deemed impossible?
After examining some literature on probability, it appears there is somewhat of an agreement as to when impossibility is reached:
- It has been estimated that there are somewhere around 10⁸⁰ electrons/particles/atoms in the universe.[1] That would be all the possible material with which to work in all the cosmos.
- Suppose that each of those particles can engage in 10¹² (1 trillion) interactions with other particles every second.
- The current evolutionary belief of the universe’s age is 13.77 billion years. Let’s more than double that and give all the particles 30 billion years (10¹⁸ seconds) to engage in 1 trillion interactions every second.
- Therefore, if we calculate the odds of any possibility of something happening through every particle engaging in 1 trillion interactions every second for 30 billion years, the odds are: 10⁸⁰ x 10¹² x 10¹⁸ = 10¹¹⁰ odds/possibility.[2]
Any odds higher than 10¹¹⁰ would be deemed impossible. In fact, many would consider anything over 10⁵⁰ to be in the realm of impossibility.[3] For perspective, the number 10⁵⁰ would be the same as the number of people it would take to stand shoulder to shoulder and fill our solar system from the Sun to Pluto.[4]
Cambridge astronomy professor Sir Fred Hoyle (not a Christian) wrote, “Now imagine 10⁵⁰ blind persons each with a scrambled Rubik cube and try to conceive of the chance of them all simultaneously arriving at the solved form. You then have the chance of arriving by random shuffling of just one of the many biopolymers on which life depends. The notion that not only the biopolymers but the operating program of a living cell could be arrived at by chance in a primordial soup here on Earth is evidently nonsense of a high order.”[5]
Dr. Marcel Golay (mathematician and physicist) calculated the odds of a “simple” replicating protein arising from random chance circumstances to be 10⁴⁵⁰.[6]
Dr. Frank Salisbury (plant physiologist) calculated the odds of a typical DNA chain arising from random chance circumstances to be 10⁶⁰⁰.[7]
The average “simplest” protein is 400 links of amino acids.[8] The hypothetical minimum for a functional cell is 400 proteins.[9] Including all of that, all the energy producing mechanisms, and the coding of DNA in genes through the operation of mRNA and tRNA to form a protein, the odds of everything coming together at once to form a living, functional cell by random chance are 10⁵⁷ ⁸⁰⁰.[10]
What each of these secular scientists has shown us is the absurdity of naturalistic evolution due to the necessity of all
components at the exact same time to make something work. How could any one component evolve and become functional without all the others evolving at the exact same time so that they could all function and operate in such a complex way? None of them can function and operate without the other – the whole system is irreducibly complex. Take out one component, the whole thing ceases to function.
To illustrate, the result of randomly shuffling a deck of cards means nothing; it is just a pile of cards in a random, nonsensical order. However, the shuffling of a deck resulting in every card separated into the four suits with each suit perfectly arranged in order of Ace through King would demand rejection of the idea that it had happened by random chance over billions of years of shuffling. Rather, it must have been organized into a sensical pattern by an intelligent source. Not to mention, this doesn’t even address the production of the cards, or the equipment needed to produce the cards, or the components of the equipment needed to produce the cards, or the elements needed to form the components needed to build the equipment to produce the cards that are then intelligently arranged in a sensical manner.
Edmund J. Ambrose, author of many evolutionary biology books, wrote, “When we come to examine the simplest known organism capable of independent existence, the situation becomes even more fantastic. In the DNA chain of the chromosome of the bacterium E. coli, a favourite organism used by molecular biologists, the helix consists of 3-4 million base pairs. These are all arranged in a sequence that is ’meaningful’ in the sense that it gives rise to enzyme molecules which fit the various metabolites and products used by the cell. This unique sequence represents a choice of one out of 10² ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ alternative ways of arranging the bases! We are compelled to conclude that the origin of the first life was a unique event, which cannot be discussed in terms of probability.”[11]
Yale biophysics professor Harold Morowitz calculated the odds of one complete bacterium of E. coli
spontaneously forming on its own at anytime in history to be less than 10¹⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰.[12]
Yes, not only is naturalistic evolution improbable, it is impossible. Thus, we understand that “the universe has been created by the word of God so that what is seen has not been made out of things that are visible” (Hebrews 11:3), but rather “All things came into being through Him, and apart from Him nothing came into being that has come into being” (John 1:3).
1. John C. Villanueva, “How Many Atoms Are There in the Universe?”, Universe Today, 30 July 2009, <https://www.universetoday.com/36302/atoms-in-the-universe/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
Jay Bennett, “How Many Particles Are in the Observable Universe?”, Popular Mechanics, 11 July 2017, <https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a27259/how-many-particles-are-in-the-entire-universe/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
2. Henry M. Morris, Ph.D., “Probability and Order Versus Evolution”, Acts & Facts
8(7), 1979, <https://www.icr.org/article/probability-order-versus-evolution/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
3. Ibid.
4. Russell Grigg, “Could monkeys type the 23rd Psalm?”, <https://creation.com/could-monkeys-type-the-23rd-psalm>, accessed 21 June 2021.
5. Sir Fred Hoyle, “The Big Bang in Astronomy”, New Scientist
92(1280):527, 19 Nov 1981.
6. Marcel J.E. Golay, Ph.D., “Reflections of a Communications Engineer”, Analytical Chemistry, V. 33, June 1961, p. 23.
7. Frank B. Salisbury, Ph.D., “Doubts about the Modern Synthetic Theory of Evolution”, American Biology Teacher, Sept. 1971, p. 336.
8. D.A. Bradbury, “Reply to Landau and Landau”, Creation/Evolution
13(2):49, 1993. Note:
this is a secular, pro-evolution publication.
9. Don Batten, Ph.D., “Cheating with chance”, <https://creation.com/cheating-with-chance>, accessed 21 June 2021.
See also: Jonathan Sarfati, Ph.D., “How Simple Can Life Be?”, 15 March 2021, <https://creation.com/how-simple-can-life-be>, accessed 21 June 2021.
10. D.A. Bradbury, “Reply to Landau and Landau”.
11. E.J. Ambrose, The Nature and Origin of the Biological World, Prentice Hall, Europe, 1982, p. 135.
12. Harold J. Morowitz, Energy Flow in Biology, Academic Press, NY, 1968, p. 67.
In Genesis 12 the Lord calls Abraham (Abram) to be the father of a great nation. This all happened to Abraham at 75 years old. Some might say that is too late in life to start something new, especially a calling of that magnitude. Yet that was not the overwhelming part to me; that would come in verse 7 when the Lord said the land would be his offspring’s. Wait, what?! The Lord had a plan and His Providence would guide Abraham, even when Abraham did not have offspring and did not wait on the Lord. I have to wonder how I would have reacted to such a call and covenant. As we know from Psalms, the Lord guides and sustains all by His Providence for His name sake, which we are focusing on this year. But does Providence act on our timing? When God called Abraham, he had no children. Yet the promise given was that his offspring would be a great nation in a land saved for them. What we know now is that Abraham wouldn’t have his son Isaac until he was 100 years old, a full 25 years after the covenant was made. Most of the time we expect the Lord’s hand working in our life to be immediate, but that is not always the case. In some cases it might take years to experience the Providence coming to fruition. Remember Genesis 21:2 states Isaac’s birth was at the “appointed time.” This understanding should give us peace as we rely on Providence and, at times, are called to patience. Providence was again on display for us to understand that even in obedient sacrifice He will be glorified, as Abraham was asked to sacrifice his son, Isaac, who was inherently tied to the covenant of the Lord. Abraham was faithful in all aspects, even when most of us might say “no way” to that sacrifice to the Lord. Yet at the right time, through faithfulness in Abraham’s obedience, there was Providence providing behind him in the ram. Our faithful obedience sometimes feels like a tough ask from the Lord, but rest assured He is there, ready to lift up His name through us. Providence continued through time, 100 years later, after Isaac had his sons, Jacob and Esau. Then Jacob was blessed by the Lord with 12 sons, one of which was Joseph, who was sold to Egypt by his brothers. You probably recall all the ups and downs of Joseph’s life, yet he was faithful to the Lord throughout them all. Remember, there was a covenant at stake. The Lord, through His Providence, made sure he had Joseph where He needed him to save the great nation of Israel from famine. This Providence secured the covenant line to continue to Christ. Many times throughout history Providence has guided and protected His covenant, and now you and I can be blessed with inclusion in His great nation through Christ. If it had not been so, then we literally have no assurance of our salvation. Praise be to our Lord Jesus Christ that His Providence is faithful for all eternity, so we may know peace and have confidence in the promised destiny. Our ministry here at CTF has always emphasized the importance of Genesis 12, Abraham’s covenant. We share there is no difference in importance of Genesis 1-11 over chapter 12 and through the entirety of the Bible. The whole Bible is inspired to be trustworthy and to show His Providence throughout history for His name’s sake and also for our salvation. Blessings.
Fort Necessity, also known as the Battle of the Great Meadows