What are the Odds: Improbable or Impossible?
Ryan Cox • August 2, 2021
What are the Odds: Improbable or Impossible?
At a CTF event, I was asked if the improbability of evolution was the same as the impossibility of evolution. The point was made that an atheistic evolutionist could argue that just because evolution is highly improbable, that does not mean it is impossible. “After all,” the evolutionist could say, “we are here.”
Yes, naturalistic evolution is highly improbable, but can it be deemed impossible?
After examining some literature on probability, it appears there is somewhat of an agreement as to when impossibility is reached:
- It has been estimated that there are somewhere around 10⁸⁰ electrons/particles/atoms in the universe.[1] That would be all the possible material with which to work in all the cosmos.
- Suppose that each of those particles can engage in 10¹² (1 trillion) interactions with other particles every second.
- The current evolutionary belief of the universe’s age is 13.77 billion years. Let’s more than double that and give all the particles 30 billion years (10¹⁸ seconds) to engage in 1 trillion interactions every second.
- Therefore, if we calculate the odds of any possibility of something happening through every particle engaging in 1 trillion interactions every second for 30 billion years, the odds are: 10⁸⁰ x 10¹² x 10¹⁸ = 10¹¹⁰ odds/possibility.[2]
Any odds higher than 10¹¹⁰ would be deemed impossible. In fact, many would consider anything over 10⁵⁰ to be in the realm of impossibility.[3] For perspective, the number 10⁵⁰ would be the same as the number of people it would take to stand shoulder to shoulder and fill our solar system from the Sun to Pluto.[4]
Cambridge astronomy professor Sir Fred Hoyle (not a Christian) wrote, “Now imagine 10⁵⁰ blind persons each with a scrambled Rubik cube and try to conceive of the chance of them all simultaneously arriving at the solved form. You then have the chance of arriving by random shuffling of just one of the many biopolymers on which life depends. The notion that not only the biopolymers but the operating program of a living cell could be arrived at by chance in a primordial soup here on Earth is evidently nonsense of a high order.”[5]
Dr. Marcel Golay (mathematician and physicist) calculated the odds of a “simple” replicating protein arising from random chance circumstances to be 10⁴⁵⁰.[6]
Dr. Frank Salisbury (plant physiologist) calculated the odds of a typical DNA chain arising from random chance circumstances to be 10⁶⁰⁰.[7]
The average “simplest” protein is 400 links of amino acids.[8] The hypothetical minimum for a functional cell is 400 proteins.[9] Including all of that, all the energy producing mechanisms, and the coding of DNA in genes through the operation of mRNA and tRNA to form a protein, the odds of everything coming together at once to form a living, functional cell by random chance are 10⁵⁷ ⁸⁰⁰.[10]
What each of these secular scientists has shown us is the absurdity of naturalistic evolution due to the necessity of all
components at the exact same time to make something work. How could any one component evolve and become functional without all the others evolving at the exact same time so that they could all function and operate in such a complex way? None of them can function and operate without the other – the whole system is irreducibly complex. Take out one component, the whole thing ceases to function.
To illustrate, the result of randomly shuffling a deck of cards means nothing; it is just a pile of cards in a random, nonsensical order. However, the shuffling of a deck resulting in every card separated into the four suits with each suit perfectly arranged in order of Ace through King would demand rejection of the idea that it had happened by random chance over billions of years of shuffling. Rather, it must have been organized into a sensical pattern by an intelligent source. Not to mention, this doesn’t even address the production of the cards, or the equipment needed to produce the cards, or the components of the equipment needed to produce the cards, or the elements needed to form the components needed to build the equipment to produce the cards that are then intelligently arranged in a sensical manner.
Edmund J. Ambrose, author of many evolutionary biology books, wrote, “When we come to examine the simplest known organism capable of independent existence, the situation becomes even more fantastic. In the DNA chain of the chromosome of the bacterium E. coli, a favourite organism used by molecular biologists, the helix consists of 3-4 million base pairs. These are all arranged in a sequence that is ’meaningful’ in the sense that it gives rise to enzyme molecules which fit the various metabolites and products used by the cell. This unique sequence represents a choice of one out of 10² ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ alternative ways of arranging the bases! We are compelled to conclude that the origin of the first life was a unique event, which cannot be discussed in terms of probability.”[11]
Yale biophysics professor Harold Morowitz calculated the odds of one complete bacterium of E. coli
spontaneously forming on its own at anytime in history to be less than 10¹⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰.[12]
Yes, not only is naturalistic evolution improbable, it is impossible. Thus, we understand that “the universe has been created by the word of God so that what is seen has not been made out of things that are visible” (Hebrews 11:3), but rather “All things came into being through Him, and apart from Him nothing came into being that has come into being” (John 1:3).
1. John C. Villanueva, “How Many Atoms Are There in the Universe?”, Universe Today, 30 July 2009, <https://www.universetoday.com/36302/atoms-in-the-universe/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
Jay Bennett, “How Many Particles Are in the Observable Universe?”, Popular Mechanics, 11 July 2017, <https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a27259/how-many-particles-are-in-the-entire-universe/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
2. Henry M. Morris, Ph.D., “Probability and Order Versus Evolution”, Acts & Facts
8(7), 1979, <https://www.icr.org/article/probability-order-versus-evolution/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
3. Ibid.
4. Russell Grigg, “Could monkeys type the 23rd Psalm?”, <https://creation.com/could-monkeys-type-the-23rd-psalm>, accessed 21 June 2021.
5. Sir Fred Hoyle, “The Big Bang in Astronomy”, New Scientist
92(1280):527, 19 Nov 1981.
6. Marcel J.E. Golay, Ph.D., “Reflections of a Communications Engineer”, Analytical Chemistry, V. 33, June 1961, p. 23.
7. Frank B. Salisbury, Ph.D., “Doubts about the Modern Synthetic Theory of Evolution”, American Biology Teacher, Sept. 1971, p. 336.
8. D.A. Bradbury, “Reply to Landau and Landau”, Creation/Evolution
13(2):49, 1993. Note:
this is a secular, pro-evolution publication.
9. Don Batten, Ph.D., “Cheating with chance”, <https://creation.com/cheating-with-chance>, accessed 21 June 2021.
See also: Jonathan Sarfati, Ph.D., “How Simple Can Life Be?”, 15 March 2021, <https://creation.com/how-simple-can-life-be>, accessed 21 June 2021.
10. D.A. Bradbury, “Reply to Landau and Landau”.
11. E.J. Ambrose, The Nature and Origin of the Biological World, Prentice Hall, Europe, 1982, p. 135.
12. Harold J. Morowitz, Energy Flow in Biology, Academic Press, NY, 1968, p. 67.
As many of you may know, I appreciate space. Not space around me, although the older I get the more I appreciate that as well. The things in the heavens fascinate me and have for a large chunk of my life. I love working with our telescopes, allowing people to see for themselves objects that the Lord made on the 4th day of history. When I was younger I followed our Space Shuttle program, and over the years I have had the opportunity to see a couple of those shuttles around the country. Now it is great to see all the renewed interest in exploring the heavenly creation. I know most of it is for evolutionary reasons, yet over and over again something is discovered that points to the trustworthiness of God’s Word. After all, we are to study His creation as Genesis 1:28 states. On a recent trip to El Paso, it occurred to me that Blue Origin’s launch facility is in west Texas somewhere. After some quick searching I realized we were within an hour and half of it, and there was a rescheduled launch window during the time of our meeting. So, with some persuading of my colleagues, we arose early one morning to make the launch. We made it with just minutes to spare. It was spectacular! The whole launch to just beyond the Karman Line (space boundary, 62 miles/100km) and return of the rocket and capsule is about ten minutes total. While Blue Origin is best known for its New Shepherd rocket that carries paying customers to space and back with the biggest windows ever in a capsule, this NS-29 launch was purely experimental with a payload of instruments to measure simulated lunar gravity. Even though it was not a Saturn V, Space Shuttle, Starship or Falcon launch, it was great to hear and feel a launch for the first time, from blast off to the sonic boom return. It has piqued my desire to see a bigger launch now. As I began to reflect on what I experienced, the Lord reminded me of His design. Earth, our home planet, is so well designed for life. There is literally nowhere in all the universe like it. Yet He gave us the ability to discover creation beyond it. The only reason we can launch rockets and do space exploration is because He set it up in an orderly way. Physics works because He established it to work in a predictable fashion. As much as we may never understand everything in the universe from our position here, it works on an ordered reality that is reinforced by God’s Word. This is what drove Sir Isaac Newton in his understanding of physics. He wrote, “The motions which the planets now have could not spring from any natural cause alone but were by an intelligent Agent.” Evolutionists may come up with theories about the origin of things in the heavens, but over and over again they are being shown through experimentation and observation to be wrong. The Lord set the order of everything in the beginning and sustains it by His Word (Hebrews 1:3). So as you look to the heavens tonight, gaze into the depths of space and observe the different facets the Lord placed up there for our eyes (Genesis 1:17). Peer through a telescope at the lesser light of the moon with marvel and anticipation of further human study in the coming years. Check out the amazing observations being made by the James Webb telescope from deep in space. All of these place a perspective of how awesome our Creator is and how much we depend on Him. Our design becomes more and more obvious with every discovery, yet in our universe we appear so minuscule and fragile. Thanks be to God that His infinite focus has, is and always will be here on us! Blessings.
Moses & History (part 2)