What are the Odds: Improbable or Impossible?
Ryan Cox • August 2, 2021
What are the Odds: Improbable or Impossible?
At a CTF event, I was asked if the improbability of evolution was the same as the impossibility of evolution. The point was made that an atheistic evolutionist could argue that just because evolution is highly improbable, that does not mean it is impossible. “After all,” the evolutionist could say, “we are here.”
Yes, naturalistic evolution is highly improbable, but can it be deemed impossible?
After examining some literature on probability, it appears there is somewhat of an agreement as to when impossibility is reached:
- It has been estimated that there are somewhere around 10⁸⁰ electrons/particles/atoms in the universe.[1] That would be all the possible material with which to work in all the cosmos.
- Suppose that each of those particles can engage in 10¹² (1 trillion) interactions with other particles every second.
- The current evolutionary belief of the universe’s age is 13.77 billion years. Let’s more than double that and give all the particles 30 billion years (10¹⁸ seconds) to engage in 1 trillion interactions every second.
- Therefore, if we calculate the odds of any possibility of something happening through every particle engaging in 1 trillion interactions every second for 30 billion years, the odds are: 10⁸⁰ x 10¹² x 10¹⁸ = 10¹¹⁰ odds/possibility.[2]
Any odds higher than 10¹¹⁰ would be deemed impossible. In fact, many would consider anything over 10⁵⁰ to be in the realm of impossibility.[3] For perspective, the number 10⁵⁰ would be the same as the number of people it would take to stand shoulder to shoulder and fill our solar system from the Sun to Pluto.[4]
Cambridge astronomy professor Sir Fred Hoyle (not a Christian) wrote, “Now imagine 10⁵⁰ blind persons each with a scrambled Rubik cube and try to conceive of the chance of them all simultaneously arriving at the solved form. You then have the chance of arriving by random shuffling of just one of the many biopolymers on which life depends. The notion that not only the biopolymers but the operating program of a living cell could be arrived at by chance in a primordial soup here on Earth is evidently nonsense of a high order.”[5]
Dr. Marcel Golay (mathematician and physicist) calculated the odds of a “simple” replicating protein arising from random chance circumstances to be 10⁴⁵⁰.[6]
Dr. Frank Salisbury (plant physiologist) calculated the odds of a typical DNA chain arising from random chance circumstances to be 10⁶⁰⁰.[7]
The average “simplest” protein is 400 links of amino acids.[8] The hypothetical minimum for a functional cell is 400 proteins.[9] Including all of that, all the energy producing mechanisms, and the coding of DNA in genes through the operation of mRNA and tRNA to form a protein, the odds of everything coming together at once to form a living, functional cell by random chance are 10⁵⁷ ⁸⁰⁰.[10]
What each of these secular scientists has shown us is the absurdity of naturalistic evolution due to the necessity of all
components at the exact same time to make something work. How could any one component evolve and become functional without all the others evolving at the exact same time so that they could all function and operate in such a complex way? None of them can function and operate without the other – the whole system is irreducibly complex. Take out one component, the whole thing ceases to function.
To illustrate, the result of randomly shuffling a deck of cards means nothing; it is just a pile of cards in a random, nonsensical order. However, the shuffling of a deck resulting in every card separated into the four suits with each suit perfectly arranged in order of Ace through King would demand rejection of the idea that it had happened by random chance over billions of years of shuffling. Rather, it must have been organized into a sensical pattern by an intelligent source. Not to mention, this doesn’t even address the production of the cards, or the equipment needed to produce the cards, or the components of the equipment needed to produce the cards, or the elements needed to form the components needed to build the equipment to produce the cards that are then intelligently arranged in a sensical manner.
Edmund J. Ambrose, author of many evolutionary biology books, wrote, “When we come to examine the simplest known organism capable of independent existence, the situation becomes even more fantastic. In the DNA chain of the chromosome of the bacterium E. coli, a favourite organism used by molecular biologists, the helix consists of 3-4 million base pairs. These are all arranged in a sequence that is ’meaningful’ in the sense that it gives rise to enzyme molecules which fit the various metabolites and products used by the cell. This unique sequence represents a choice of one out of 10² ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ alternative ways of arranging the bases! We are compelled to conclude that the origin of the first life was a unique event, which cannot be discussed in terms of probability.”[11]
Yale biophysics professor Harold Morowitz calculated the odds of one complete bacterium of E. coli
spontaneously forming on its own at anytime in history to be less than 10¹⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰.[12]
Yes, not only is naturalistic evolution improbable, it is impossible. Thus, we understand that “the universe has been created by the word of God so that what is seen has not been made out of things that are visible” (Hebrews 11:3), but rather “All things came into being through Him, and apart from Him nothing came into being that has come into being” (John 1:3).
1. John C. Villanueva, “How Many Atoms Are There in the Universe?”, Universe Today, 30 July 2009, <https://www.universetoday.com/36302/atoms-in-the-universe/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
Jay Bennett, “How Many Particles Are in the Observable Universe?”, Popular Mechanics, 11 July 2017, <https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a27259/how-many-particles-are-in-the-entire-universe/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
2. Henry M. Morris, Ph.D., “Probability and Order Versus Evolution”, Acts & Facts
8(7), 1979, <https://www.icr.org/article/probability-order-versus-evolution/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
3. Ibid.
4. Russell Grigg, “Could monkeys type the 23rd Psalm?”, <https://creation.com/could-monkeys-type-the-23rd-psalm>, accessed 21 June 2021.
5. Sir Fred Hoyle, “The Big Bang in Astronomy”, New Scientist
92(1280):527, 19 Nov 1981.
6. Marcel J.E. Golay, Ph.D., “Reflections of a Communications Engineer”, Analytical Chemistry, V. 33, June 1961, p. 23.
7. Frank B. Salisbury, Ph.D., “Doubts about the Modern Synthetic Theory of Evolution”, American Biology Teacher, Sept. 1971, p. 336.
8. D.A. Bradbury, “Reply to Landau and Landau”, Creation/Evolution
13(2):49, 1993. Note:
this is a secular, pro-evolution publication.
9. Don Batten, Ph.D., “Cheating with chance”, <https://creation.com/cheating-with-chance>, accessed 21 June 2021.
See also: Jonathan Sarfati, Ph.D., “How Simple Can Life Be?”, 15 March 2021, <https://creation.com/how-simple-can-life-be>, accessed 21 June 2021.
10. D.A. Bradbury, “Reply to Landau and Landau”.
11. E.J. Ambrose, The Nature and Origin of the Biological World, Prentice Hall, Europe, 1982, p. 135.
12. Harold J. Morowitz, Energy Flow in Biology, Academic Press, NY, 1968, p. 67.
As many saw corruption not only in the abuse of parishioners, but also in church authority and doctrine, many started to speak out for reform. Martin Luther published his 95 Theses in 1517, and thanks to Johannes Guttenberg’s printing press, was able to print many short treatises on Biblical matters. His publications are thought to amount to ⅕ of all works printed in Germany in the first third of the 1500s. Economic historian Dr. Jared Rubin published in 2014 that “the mere presence of a printing press prior to 1500 increased the probability that a city would become Protestant in 1530 by 52.1 percentage points.” 1 Over in England, King Henry VIII desired to annul his marriage to his first of 6 wives, Catherine of Aragon. Pope Clement VII wouldn’t grant it, so King Henry established the Church of England, with him as the Supreme Head. After his and his son Edward’s deaths, his daughter from Catherine named Mary was able to take over. She reinstated the Catholic faith, although she was quite vengeful, burning at the stake more than 280 dissenters in her 5-year reign, giving her the label “Bloody Mary.” During this time, many Reformers fled to Geneva where they published in 1560 the Geneva Bible. After Mary’s death, her half-sister Elizabeth became queen and restored the Church of England. After her nearly 45-year reign, her cousin James I became king upon her death. He would commence the 1604 revision of the Book of Common Prayer and the Authorized Version of the Bible, published in 1611, known today as the King James Bible. Understandably, with all this political activity, things may not have always been on the up and up in the Church of England. Consequently, there were many reform efforts that sprung up, such as the Anabaptists, Baptists, Barrowists, Behmenists, Brownists, Diggers, Enthusiasts, Familists, Fifth Monarchists, Grindletonians, Levellers, Muggletonians, Puritans, Philadelphians, Quakers, Ranters, Sabbatarians, Seekers, and Socinians, to name a few. Robert Browne was an Anglican priest who was influenced by some Puritan theologians. He eventually rejected the idea of purifying the Church of England, and helped start a separatist church in 1581. In 1592, the Seditious Sectaries Act was passed specifically outlawing Brownists and other separatists, including imprisonment. Still, more continued to be influenced. So, in 1604, Archbishop Bancroft launched his campaign of suspending or firing some 380 Puritan and Separatist ministers, many of whom started new separatist churches, such as ministers Richard Clyfton and John Robinson in 1606. The postmaster and manager of the archbishop’s Manor House in Scrooby, William Brewster, had been impressed by Clyfton’s preaching and invited the separatists to meet in the house. Brewster eventually resigned his position, being fined for his absences at the king’s church. As the congregation grew, one enthusiastic 16-year old William Bradford began attending. An orphan since age 7, he had heard Clyfton preach at age 12. Now he was a member of this house church that grew to some 50 members, making it difficult to avoid the authorities. Bradford wrote, “But after these things they could not long continue in any peaceable condition, but were hunted & persecuted on every side… For some were taken & clapt up in prison, others had their houses beset & watched night and day, & hardly escaped their hands; and the most were fain to fly & leave their houses & habitations, and the means of their livelihood.” 2
This year we have focused on History & Destiny. As we ready ourselves for Thanksgiving, I am reminded of the history of the season and of the future to come. It is always great to celebrate this time of year and reflect back. There is so much to be thankful for, but the providence and provision of the Lord is foremost. His enduring guidance never gets old as He takes us to churches and people that need the message He has given us. This year has taken us to many places we have been to before, letting us reconnect with old friends. At the same time the Lord has opened new doors where people have been excited to hear and see Genesis in a new light with new emphasis. What a blessing to make new friends and meet co-laborers for the Gospel! God has given us connections with young and old alike, enabling the Kingdom work to continue and flourish for His praise. We are so thankful. Another year has passed and the Lord continues to provide all we need to continue this mission, including His provision of a new truck when we needed one. Yes, we still need help to pay it off, but just to be in a position to handle all that comes with purchasing a new truck is something for which we give great thanks to the Lord. To have what we need month in and month out, even when our program schedule was thin, has been a blessing worthy of great thanks. Two mornings in November we had the opportunity to teach a group of adults that many in the world forget about - those with special needs. It was a blast to talk with them about dinosaurs and, with several attendees, Biblical history. The Lord allowed us to help a blind young woman to “see” dinosaurs for her first time. All we needed to do was take her hand and let her trace the fossils with her touch. It was a truly exceptional moment to teach someone for her first time that dinosaurs are part of the Lord’s creation. We are so thankful to have been a tool in His providence and provision for those who were able to come. Our continuing mission is supported by each and every one of you who pray for us. The power of prayer is very real and we see its manifestation so often in this ministry. The financial support from family, friends and the body of Christ, His Church, carry us each and every year. We once again enter this season with extraordinary thankfulness for our Lord and for you. Thanksgiving Blessings!