What are the Odds: Improbable or Impossible?
Ryan Cox • August 2, 2021
What are the Odds: Improbable or Impossible?
At a CTF event, I was asked if the improbability of evolution was the same as the impossibility of evolution. The point was made that an atheistic evolutionist could argue that just because evolution is highly improbable, that does not mean it is impossible. “After all,” the evolutionist could say, “we are here.”
Yes, naturalistic evolution is highly improbable, but can it be deemed impossible?
After examining some literature on probability, it appears there is somewhat of an agreement as to when impossibility is reached:
- It has been estimated that there are somewhere around 10⁸⁰ electrons/particles/atoms in the universe.[1] That would be all the possible material with which to work in all the cosmos.
- Suppose that each of those particles can engage in 10¹² (1 trillion) interactions with other particles every second.
- The current evolutionary belief of the universe’s age is 13.77 billion years. Let’s more than double that and give all the particles 30 billion years (10¹⁸ seconds) to engage in 1 trillion interactions every second.
- Therefore, if we calculate the odds of any possibility of something happening through every particle engaging in 1 trillion interactions every second for 30 billion years, the odds are: 10⁸⁰ x 10¹² x 10¹⁸ = 10¹¹⁰ odds/possibility.[2]
Any odds higher than 10¹¹⁰ would be deemed impossible. In fact, many would consider anything over 10⁵⁰ to be in the realm of impossibility.[3] For perspective, the number 10⁵⁰ would be the same as the number of people it would take to stand shoulder to shoulder and fill our solar system from the Sun to Pluto.[4]
Cambridge astronomy professor Sir Fred Hoyle (not a Christian) wrote, “Now imagine 10⁵⁰ blind persons each with a scrambled Rubik cube and try to conceive of the chance of them all simultaneously arriving at the solved form. You then have the chance of arriving by random shuffling of just one of the many biopolymers on which life depends. The notion that not only the biopolymers but the operating program of a living cell could be arrived at by chance in a primordial soup here on Earth is evidently nonsense of a high order.”[5]
Dr. Marcel Golay (mathematician and physicist) calculated the odds of a “simple” replicating protein arising from random chance circumstances to be 10⁴⁵⁰.[6]
Dr. Frank Salisbury (plant physiologist) calculated the odds of a typical DNA chain arising from random chance circumstances to be 10⁶⁰⁰.[7]
The average “simplest” protein is 400 links of amino acids.[8] The hypothetical minimum for a functional cell is 400 proteins.[9] Including all of that, all the energy producing mechanisms, and the coding of DNA in genes through the operation of mRNA and tRNA to form a protein, the odds of everything coming together at once to form a living, functional cell by random chance are 10⁵⁷ ⁸⁰⁰.[10]
What each of these secular scientists has shown us is the absurdity of naturalistic evolution due to the necessity of all
components at the exact same time to make something work. How could any one component evolve and become functional without all the others evolving at the exact same time so that they could all function and operate in such a complex way? None of them can function and operate without the other – the whole system is irreducibly complex. Take out one component, the whole thing ceases to function.
To illustrate, the result of randomly shuffling a deck of cards means nothing; it is just a pile of cards in a random, nonsensical order. However, the shuffling of a deck resulting in every card separated into the four suits with each suit perfectly arranged in order of Ace through King would demand rejection of the idea that it had happened by random chance over billions of years of shuffling. Rather, it must have been organized into a sensical pattern by an intelligent source. Not to mention, this doesn’t even address the production of the cards, or the equipment needed to produce the cards, or the components of the equipment needed to produce the cards, or the elements needed to form the components needed to build the equipment to produce the cards that are then intelligently arranged in a sensical manner.
Edmund J. Ambrose, author of many evolutionary biology books, wrote, “When we come to examine the simplest known organism capable of independent existence, the situation becomes even more fantastic. In the DNA chain of the chromosome of the bacterium E. coli, a favourite organism used by molecular biologists, the helix consists of 3-4 million base pairs. These are all arranged in a sequence that is ’meaningful’ in the sense that it gives rise to enzyme molecules which fit the various metabolites and products used by the cell. This unique sequence represents a choice of one out of 10² ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ alternative ways of arranging the bases! We are compelled to conclude that the origin of the first life was a unique event, which cannot be discussed in terms of probability.”[11]
Yale biophysics professor Harold Morowitz calculated the odds of one complete bacterium of E. coli
spontaneously forming on its own at anytime in history to be less than 10¹⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰.[12]
Yes, not only is naturalistic evolution improbable, it is impossible. Thus, we understand that “the universe has been created by the word of God so that what is seen has not been made out of things that are visible” (Hebrews 11:3), but rather “All things came into being through Him, and apart from Him nothing came into being that has come into being” (John 1:3).
1. John C. Villanueva, “How Many Atoms Are There in the Universe?”, Universe Today, 30 July 2009, <https://www.universetoday.com/36302/atoms-in-the-universe/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
Jay Bennett, “How Many Particles Are in the Observable Universe?”, Popular Mechanics, 11 July 2017, <https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a27259/how-many-particles-are-in-the-entire-universe/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
2. Henry M. Morris, Ph.D., “Probability and Order Versus Evolution”, Acts & Facts
8(7), 1979, <https://www.icr.org/article/probability-order-versus-evolution/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
3. Ibid.
4. Russell Grigg, “Could monkeys type the 23rd Psalm?”, <https://creation.com/could-monkeys-type-the-23rd-psalm>, accessed 21 June 2021.
5. Sir Fred Hoyle, “The Big Bang in Astronomy”, New Scientist
92(1280):527, 19 Nov 1981.
6. Marcel J.E. Golay, Ph.D., “Reflections of a Communications Engineer”, Analytical Chemistry, V. 33, June 1961, p. 23.
7. Frank B. Salisbury, Ph.D., “Doubts about the Modern Synthetic Theory of Evolution”, American Biology Teacher, Sept. 1971, p. 336.
8. D.A. Bradbury, “Reply to Landau and Landau”, Creation/Evolution
13(2):49, 1993. Note:
this is a secular, pro-evolution publication.
9. Don Batten, Ph.D., “Cheating with chance”, <https://creation.com/cheating-with-chance>, accessed 21 June 2021.
See also: Jonathan Sarfati, Ph.D., “How Simple Can Life Be?”, 15 March 2021, <https://creation.com/how-simple-can-life-be>, accessed 21 June 2021.
10. D.A. Bradbury, “Reply to Landau and Landau”.
11. E.J. Ambrose, The Nature and Origin of the Biological World, Prentice Hall, Europe, 1982, p. 135.
12. Harold J. Morowitz, Energy Flow in Biology, Academic Press, NY, 1968, p. 67.
The Flood during Noah’s day was a devastating judgement against the sin and wickedness of the time. Most people focus on what the Lord did as He saved the eight people and animals on the Ark. Yet while they were being saved, the Flood destroyed the earth and left behind some remarkable things. Geology around the globe shows water burial of plants and animals. Many of the animal remains show signs of drowning and then burial. One particular reptile that shows this is the Ichthyosaurus. From what we can understand, water was her home for everything in life, even giving birth to live young. This well designed creature may even help us trust the Word of God when it comes to the history of the Flood. In our Mobile Museum of Earth History we exhibit a research replica of an ichthyosaur called Stenopterygius quadriscissus . She is from Holzmaden, Germany and is one example of hundreds that have been found in the area. The reason we can so confidently state this fossil is a “her,” when we rarely know for sure about fossil animals, is because she is pregnant. She has three babies present with her remains: one under her tail, one in or near the birth canal, and one still inside. Our fossil is in situ, which means the fossil remains in the rock matrix it was buried in. So, the presence of momma and babies are how they were buried and not articulated in some manner after excavation. This is important to show the rapid, watery burial that must have taken place to lock this scene in the fossil record. The Flood trapped organisms all over the world in different life positions. Sometimes the fossils left behind have shown eating, hunting, sleeping, swimming, nesting, or drowning. When it comes to ichthyosaurs around the planet, there is a significant number of females that seem to be pregnant. They have been found in the fossil record on at least four continents. A fair assumption would be that Ichthyosaurs had a certain time of year they mated and gave birth to young, much like sea turtles today that nest from late spring to late fall depending on the region around the world. So it should come as no surprise that we find pregnant ichthyosaurs all around the world as the Flood lasted an entire year. It would have buried the females that were pregnant near their location of habitat. Evolutionists maintain that ichthyosaurs lived tens to hundreds of million years ago and each of the mothers found in the fossil record just died while giving birth. This is difficult to support in a millions magnitude time scale. That would mean every time a disaster happened, millions of years apart, the right conditions existed to quickly bury ichthyosaurs that just so happened to be pregnant. It just might take some “faith” to trust that “miracle” would happen over and over again through eons of time. Or you can have faith that the Word of God’s history is correct with a judgement of man’s sin bringing global devastation through the Flood during Noah’s 600th year of life. The Word of God is trustworthy, with even the fossil record showing us glimpses of historical evidence in support of our faith. I’m so thankful we don’t need blind faith to trust our salvation! Blessings.
14 Nebuchadnezzar spoke, saying to them, “Is it true, Shadrach, Meshach, and Abed-Nego, that you do not serve my gods or worship the gold image which I have set up? 15 …if you do not worship, you shall be cast immediately into the midst of a burning fiery furnace. And who is the god who will deliver you from my hands?” 16 Shadrach, Meshach, and Abed-Nego answered and said to the king, “O Nebuchadnezzar, we have no need to answer you in this matter. 17 If that is the case, our God whom we serve is able to deliver us from the burning fiery furnace, and He will deliver us from your hand, O king. 18 But if He does not, let it be known to you, O king, that we do not serve your gods, nor will we worship the gold image which you have set up.” Daniel 3:14-18 In the 6th century BC, three young men stood up for their faith in the one true God, for which someone attempted to kill them. Today, in the 21st century AD, one young man was gunned down for his faith in the one true God. And sadly, Charlie Kirk is not the only one. According to The Esther Project, martyrdom for the cause of Christ is commonplace around the world ( theestherproject.com/statistics ). On average: 322 Christians are killed monthly. 214 churches or Christian properties are destroyed monthly. 772 forms of violence (beatings, kidnappings, etc.) against Christians are committed monthly. 100,000 to 160,000 Christians are killed annually in the 21st century. 1.093 million Christians were martyred between 2000 and 2010. And more than 70 million Christians are believed to have been martyred since the 1st century, with more than half killed in the 20th century alone under communist and fascist governments. And how should Christians respond? Peter wrote, “ if anyone suffers as a Christian, let him not be ashamed, but glorify God in this name ” (I Peter 4:16). Jesus took this a step further; He told us, “ …love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you ” (Matthew 5:44). Now, as Shawn Grant, minister at Kissimmee Christian Church, FL, preached on the Sunday following the assassination, th at may not be what you want to hear right now, but that is what Jesus has told us we must do. Why? So the world will see the difference Jesus makes! The night of and the days after the assassination, businesses did not have to board up their stores. Police and soldiers did not have to be deployed. There were no riots, no property damages, no police spat upon – only tears, prayers, and a witness to the world that Jesus is the answer. So noticeable is this to the world, there were more international press requests for the Charlie Kirk memorial service than are requested for Super Bowls. Within seven days of his death, Kirk’s ministry Turning Point USA had received over 54,000 campus chapter requests. And most importantly, scores of videos of young people considering or even deciding to give their lives to Jesus have been posted to social media platforms.