What are the Odds: Improbable or Impossible?
Ryan Cox • August 2, 2021
What are the Odds: Improbable or Impossible?
At a CTF event, I was asked if the improbability of evolution was the same as the impossibility of evolution. The point was made that an atheistic evolutionist could argue that just because evolution is highly improbable, that does not mean it is impossible. “After all,” the evolutionist could say, “we are here.”
Yes, naturalistic evolution is highly improbable, but can it be deemed impossible?
After examining some literature on probability, it appears there is somewhat of an agreement as to when impossibility is reached:
- It has been estimated that there are somewhere around 10⁸⁰ electrons/particles/atoms in the universe.[1] That would be all the possible material with which to work in all the cosmos.
- Suppose that each of those particles can engage in 10¹² (1 trillion) interactions with other particles every second.
- The current evolutionary belief of the universe’s age is 13.77 billion years. Let’s more than double that and give all the particles 30 billion years (10¹⁸ seconds) to engage in 1 trillion interactions every second.
- Therefore, if we calculate the odds of any possibility of something happening through every particle engaging in 1 trillion interactions every second for 30 billion years, the odds are: 10⁸⁰ x 10¹² x 10¹⁸ = 10¹¹⁰ odds/possibility.[2]
Any odds higher than 10¹¹⁰ would be deemed impossible. In fact, many would consider anything over 10⁵⁰ to be in the realm of impossibility.[3] For perspective, the number 10⁵⁰ would be the same as the number of people it would take to stand shoulder to shoulder and fill our solar system from the Sun to Pluto.[4]
Cambridge astronomy professor Sir Fred Hoyle (not a Christian) wrote, “Now imagine 10⁵⁰ blind persons each with a scrambled Rubik cube and try to conceive of the chance of them all simultaneously arriving at the solved form. You then have the chance of arriving by random shuffling of just one of the many biopolymers on which life depends. The notion that not only the biopolymers but the operating program of a living cell could be arrived at by chance in a primordial soup here on Earth is evidently nonsense of a high order.”[5]
Dr. Marcel Golay (mathematician and physicist) calculated the odds of a “simple” replicating protein arising from random chance circumstances to be 10⁴⁵⁰.[6]
Dr. Frank Salisbury (plant physiologist) calculated the odds of a typical DNA chain arising from random chance circumstances to be 10⁶⁰⁰.[7]
The average “simplest” protein is 400 links of amino acids.[8] The hypothetical minimum for a functional cell is 400 proteins.[9] Including all of that, all the energy producing mechanisms, and the coding of DNA in genes through the operation of mRNA and tRNA to form a protein, the odds of everything coming together at once to form a living, functional cell by random chance are 10⁵⁷ ⁸⁰⁰.[10]
What each of these secular scientists has shown us is the absurdity of naturalistic evolution due to the necessity of all
components at the exact same time to make something work. How could any one component evolve and become functional without all the others evolving at the exact same time so that they could all function and operate in such a complex way? None of them can function and operate without the other – the whole system is irreducibly complex. Take out one component, the whole thing ceases to function.
To illustrate, the result of randomly shuffling a deck of cards means nothing; it is just a pile of cards in a random, nonsensical order. However, the shuffling of a deck resulting in every card separated into the four suits with each suit perfectly arranged in order of Ace through King would demand rejection of the idea that it had happened by random chance over billions of years of shuffling. Rather, it must have been organized into a sensical pattern by an intelligent source. Not to mention, this doesn’t even address the production of the cards, or the equipment needed to produce the cards, or the components of the equipment needed to produce the cards, or the elements needed to form the components needed to build the equipment to produce the cards that are then intelligently arranged in a sensical manner.
Edmund J. Ambrose, author of many evolutionary biology books, wrote, “When we come to examine the simplest known organism capable of independent existence, the situation becomes even more fantastic. In the DNA chain of the chromosome of the bacterium E. coli, a favourite organism used by molecular biologists, the helix consists of 3-4 million base pairs. These are all arranged in a sequence that is ’meaningful’ in the sense that it gives rise to enzyme molecules which fit the various metabolites and products used by the cell. This unique sequence represents a choice of one out of 10² ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ alternative ways of arranging the bases! We are compelled to conclude that the origin of the first life was a unique event, which cannot be discussed in terms of probability.”[11]
Yale biophysics professor Harold Morowitz calculated the odds of one complete bacterium of E. coli
spontaneously forming on its own at anytime in history to be less than 10¹⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰.[12]
Yes, not only is naturalistic evolution improbable, it is impossible. Thus, we understand that “the universe has been created by the word of God so that what is seen has not been made out of things that are visible” (Hebrews 11:3), but rather “All things came into being through Him, and apart from Him nothing came into being that has come into being” (John 1:3).
1. John C. Villanueva, “How Many Atoms Are There in the Universe?”, Universe Today, 30 July 2009, <https://www.universetoday.com/36302/atoms-in-the-universe/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
Jay Bennett, “How Many Particles Are in the Observable Universe?”, Popular Mechanics, 11 July 2017, <https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a27259/how-many-particles-are-in-the-entire-universe/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
2. Henry M. Morris, Ph.D., “Probability and Order Versus Evolution”, Acts & Facts
8(7), 1979, <https://www.icr.org/article/probability-order-versus-evolution/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
3. Ibid.
4. Russell Grigg, “Could monkeys type the 23rd Psalm?”, <https://creation.com/could-monkeys-type-the-23rd-psalm>, accessed 21 June 2021.
5. Sir Fred Hoyle, “The Big Bang in Astronomy”, New Scientist
92(1280):527, 19 Nov 1981.
6. Marcel J.E. Golay, Ph.D., “Reflections of a Communications Engineer”, Analytical Chemistry, V. 33, June 1961, p. 23.
7. Frank B. Salisbury, Ph.D., “Doubts about the Modern Synthetic Theory of Evolution”, American Biology Teacher, Sept. 1971, p. 336.
8. D.A. Bradbury, “Reply to Landau and Landau”, Creation/Evolution
13(2):49, 1993. Note:
this is a secular, pro-evolution publication.
9. Don Batten, Ph.D., “Cheating with chance”, <https://creation.com/cheating-with-chance>, accessed 21 June 2021.
See also: Jonathan Sarfati, Ph.D., “How Simple Can Life Be?”, 15 March 2021, <https://creation.com/how-simple-can-life-be>, accessed 21 June 2021.
10. D.A. Bradbury, “Reply to Landau and Landau”.
11. E.J. Ambrose, The Nature and Origin of the Biological World, Prentice Hall, Europe, 1982, p. 135.
12. Harold J. Morowitz, Energy Flow in Biology, Academic Press, NY, 1968, p. 67.
Moses & History (part 3)
Over the course of time a person can accumulate many things. Most of the stuff we collect is meaningless to most everyone else, but when a person collects books, they can be treasured for a lifetime and even beyond. In this age of digital media, physical books seem to be less important to many people. Digital books are searchable, and copy/paste functions make it easy to use those great quotes. Yet, there is still something great about a physical book, things you can’t get digitally: the turning of pages, the feel of it in your hand, and the “book” smell. For our founder Dr. Sharp, physical books could never be replaced by digital. While my collection of books is growing each year, it is dwarfed by Dr. Sharp’s collection. Over the years he collected thousands of titles for research and enjoyment. Through the course of his ministry he had to sell his book collection a couple of different times to support his family, only to start collecting again when he was able to do so. When Doc passed his office full of packed bookshelves to me and said he would clear the shelves, I laughed out loud at the prospect of having loads of empty bookshelves. So I urged him to instead leave his books for my, and anyone else’s, use. Little did I understand that the four bookcases in my office were only a fraction of his entire collection. A couple of years back when Doc moved from his house, it was decided that his book collection would be stored at the office. Our thought was to establish a library, yet none of us had time to plan, organize and catalog all 79 boxes of books. They sat piled in his office until last year when my daughter Megan joined our ministry. She has a love of books, both reading and writing. So we offered her the task of cataloging and establishing Doc’s library. Can you picture me, a bbq lover, being offered a table full of succulent smoked offerings - brisket, sausage, ribs, pulled pork, chicken, turkey and all sides? Yep, that was Megan’s response to the library. For over four months she cataloged and organized the entire collection. The Dr. G. Thomas Sharp Library was completed earlier this year in his old office space, with overflow into my office. The entire 2700+ volume agglomeration is digitally cataloged for searching and locating. As you might expect, there is an extensive collection of creation and evolution subject matter, yet the library is full of many different categories. It very much reflects Doc’s love of gaining knowledge and research. An extensive commentary collection and multiple Biblical reference sections are invaluable to our ministry. There is even a whole bookcase housing books that are over 100 years old. Our desire was not to just house books but to also make a place of honor and inspiration. One wall exhibits Doc’s many diplomas, and throughout the library we have placed personal memorabilia of the mission trips he took over the years. Come, grab a book, relax in the sitting area and allow Doc’s handwritten notes from the margins or post-it notes bring a smile to your face. For those who may be more ambitious, Doc's office chair resides at the credenza for anyone to sit and be inspired to study. This is a place to honor Doc’s life and love for books. We at CTF have already utilized this great resource for further study, and we are so thankful to Diane and their family for donating these books for continued Kingdom growth. Blessings.