What are the Odds: Improbable or Impossible?
Ryan Cox • August 2, 2021
What are the Odds: Improbable or Impossible?
At a CTF event, I was asked if the improbability of evolution was the same as the impossibility of evolution. The point was made that an atheistic evolutionist could argue that just because evolution is highly improbable, that does not mean it is impossible. “After all,” the evolutionist could say, “we are here.”
Yes, naturalistic evolution is highly improbable, but can it be deemed impossible?
After examining some literature on probability, it appears there is somewhat of an agreement as to when impossibility is reached:
- It has been estimated that there are somewhere around 10⁸⁰ electrons/particles/atoms in the universe.[1] That would be all the possible material with which to work in all the cosmos.
- Suppose that each of those particles can engage in 10¹² (1 trillion) interactions with other particles every second.
- The current evolutionary belief of the universe’s age is 13.77 billion years. Let’s more than double that and give all the particles 30 billion years (10¹⁸ seconds) to engage in 1 trillion interactions every second.
- Therefore, if we calculate the odds of any possibility of something happening through every particle engaging in 1 trillion interactions every second for 30 billion years, the odds are: 10⁸⁰ x 10¹² x 10¹⁸ = 10¹¹⁰ odds/possibility.[2]
Any odds higher than 10¹¹⁰ would be deemed impossible. In fact, many would consider anything over 10⁵⁰ to be in the realm of impossibility.[3] For perspective, the number 10⁵⁰ would be the same as the number of people it would take to stand shoulder to shoulder and fill our solar system from the Sun to Pluto.[4]
Cambridge astronomy professor Sir Fred Hoyle (not a Christian) wrote, “Now imagine 10⁵⁰ blind persons each with a scrambled Rubik cube and try to conceive of the chance of them all simultaneously arriving at the solved form. You then have the chance of arriving by random shuffling of just one of the many biopolymers on which life depends. The notion that not only the biopolymers but the operating program of a living cell could be arrived at by chance in a primordial soup here on Earth is evidently nonsense of a high order.”[5]
Dr. Marcel Golay (mathematician and physicist) calculated the odds of a “simple” replicating protein arising from random chance circumstances to be 10⁴⁵⁰.[6]
Dr. Frank Salisbury (plant physiologist) calculated the odds of a typical DNA chain arising from random chance circumstances to be 10⁶⁰⁰.[7]
The average “simplest” protein is 400 links of amino acids.[8] The hypothetical minimum for a functional cell is 400 proteins.[9] Including all of that, all the energy producing mechanisms, and the coding of DNA in genes through the operation of mRNA and tRNA to form a protein, the odds of everything coming together at once to form a living, functional cell by random chance are 10⁵⁷ ⁸⁰⁰.[10]
What each of these secular scientists has shown us is the absurdity of naturalistic evolution due to the necessity of all
components at the exact same time to make something work. How could any one component evolve and become functional without all the others evolving at the exact same time so that they could all function and operate in such a complex way? None of them can function and operate without the other – the whole system is irreducibly complex. Take out one component, the whole thing ceases to function.
To illustrate, the result of randomly shuffling a deck of cards means nothing; it is just a pile of cards in a random, nonsensical order. However, the shuffling of a deck resulting in every card separated into the four suits with each suit perfectly arranged in order of Ace through King would demand rejection of the idea that it had happened by random chance over billions of years of shuffling. Rather, it must have been organized into a sensical pattern by an intelligent source. Not to mention, this doesn’t even address the production of the cards, or the equipment needed to produce the cards, or the components of the equipment needed to produce the cards, or the elements needed to form the components needed to build the equipment to produce the cards that are then intelligently arranged in a sensical manner.
Edmund J. Ambrose, author of many evolutionary biology books, wrote, “When we come to examine the simplest known organism capable of independent existence, the situation becomes even more fantastic. In the DNA chain of the chromosome of the bacterium E. coli, a favourite organism used by molecular biologists, the helix consists of 3-4 million base pairs. These are all arranged in a sequence that is ’meaningful’ in the sense that it gives rise to enzyme molecules which fit the various metabolites and products used by the cell. This unique sequence represents a choice of one out of 10² ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ alternative ways of arranging the bases! We are compelled to conclude that the origin of the first life was a unique event, which cannot be discussed in terms of probability.”[11]
Yale biophysics professor Harold Morowitz calculated the odds of one complete bacterium of E. coli
spontaneously forming on its own at anytime in history to be less than 10¹⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰ ⁰⁰⁰.[12]
Yes, not only is naturalistic evolution improbable, it is impossible. Thus, we understand that “the universe has been created by the word of God so that what is seen has not been made out of things that are visible” (Hebrews 11:3), but rather “All things came into being through Him, and apart from Him nothing came into being that has come into being” (John 1:3).
1. John C. Villanueva, “How Many Atoms Are There in the Universe?”, Universe Today, 30 July 2009, <https://www.universetoday.com/36302/atoms-in-the-universe/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
Jay Bennett, “How Many Particles Are in the Observable Universe?”, Popular Mechanics, 11 July 2017, <https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a27259/how-many-particles-are-in-the-entire-universe/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
2. Henry M. Morris, Ph.D., “Probability and Order Versus Evolution”, Acts & Facts
8(7), 1979, <https://www.icr.org/article/probability-order-versus-evolution/>, accessed 23 June 2021.
3. Ibid.
4. Russell Grigg, “Could monkeys type the 23rd Psalm?”, <https://creation.com/could-monkeys-type-the-23rd-psalm>, accessed 21 June 2021.
5. Sir Fred Hoyle, “The Big Bang in Astronomy”, New Scientist
92(1280):527, 19 Nov 1981.
6. Marcel J.E. Golay, Ph.D., “Reflections of a Communications Engineer”, Analytical Chemistry, V. 33, June 1961, p. 23.
7. Frank B. Salisbury, Ph.D., “Doubts about the Modern Synthetic Theory of Evolution”, American Biology Teacher, Sept. 1971, p. 336.
8. D.A. Bradbury, “Reply to Landau and Landau”, Creation/Evolution
13(2):49, 1993. Note:
this is a secular, pro-evolution publication.
9. Don Batten, Ph.D., “Cheating with chance”, <https://creation.com/cheating-with-chance>, accessed 21 June 2021.
See also: Jonathan Sarfati, Ph.D., “How Simple Can Life Be?”, 15 March 2021, <https://creation.com/how-simple-can-life-be>, accessed 21 June 2021.
10. D.A. Bradbury, “Reply to Landau and Landau”.
11. E.J. Ambrose, The Nature and Origin of the Biological World, Prentice Hall, Europe, 1982, p. 135.
12. Harold J. Morowitz, Energy Flow in Biology, Academic Press, NY, 1968, p. 67.
One of the most important ministry focuses CTF has is the Sharp Institute for Biblical Worldview Studies (SIBWS). Dr. Sharp began this division of our ministry in 2005 because of a specific call from the Lord. As Doc would share often, the Lord challenged him. He saw that even with all of the programming and books sold in the church programs that we did year after year, and as impactful and Kingdom-building as that was, when we left there was most often no one in the local body to continue our message and teaching on Genesis 1-12 and its importance to the Gospel. The Lord directed Doc to multiply the teaching and mission of CTF in the local body. So Doc heard the call and accepted the challenge, as he always did from the Lord, and IBWS was born. Doc called a few people to join him for study that first meeting of the IBWS at a dude ranch in north Texas. I was one of those first invited to come and study, as many of you know from my personal testimony shared over the years. It was Providence that directed me to this Cadre study group and laid the foundation for me to be in the position I am today. As the four of us in that first group studied, the Lord connected, emphasized, and exhorted the importance of Genesis in our worldviews. When I left that first meeting, I was full and ready to teach and preach what the Lord had just challenged and changed in my worldview. Now, 21 years later, Doc’s original calling and direction for the IBWS continues. Over the course of these years, 146 members have completed the training. Each one has been challenged to use what they have learned wherever the Lord places them in ministry. For some it is from the pulpit, others are in vocational student ministry, and some have been called to primarily impact their own families with worldview training. We send them off with all of our outlines and presentation slides to help accomplish this task. It is quite exciting to look back and see what the Lord has done through this endeavor. Ryan and I literally might not be where we are today if we hadn’t first studied in our Cadre program. When Doc retired and passed the mantle of the presidency to me in 2018, it seemed fitting to honor his enduring call to Biblical worldview training by renaming the Institute to bear his name. So now it will forever be called the Sharp Institute for Biblical Worldview Studies. Over the course of its history we have had consistent numbers of invited members desiring to learn more of the Word of God. However, we have never had a consistent location to provide the training. It’s through the generous offerings of borrowed church facilities that we have been able to continue SIBWS without a home of its own. It is time to change that. We are in need of our own facility to house the SIBWS presently and for future expansion of this CTF ministry division. We have been pursuing different options, from renovating our present office building to the purchasing of additional space. Providence would have it that 2 doors north of our offices there is a property for sale. It is a great fit for the SIBWS Cadre program needs, and it would also provide room for our books and resources department to expand out of its present cramped space. It has a room for a training facility, a kitchen (needing renovation), dining room options, possible sleeping quarters for a Cadre member in need, 3 bathrooms and a shower, parking out back (which we have been blessed to utilize for years by permission), and the afore mentioned room for our books and resources department. We have no idea how we could ever afford such a property without the Lord’s help, as we are devoted to being as debt free as possible moving forward in this ministry. In the midst of seeking the Lord for this need to be met, He has already sent us a generous offer of a $100,000 matching gift toward the purchase of a property , even if the building up the block is not the one. Truly, our financial position has never been more blessed at any other time in our history than at present, being completely debt free. So, I share all of this to ask for your prayers as we move forward to find a solution to our need of a home for the SIBWS and it’s continued effectiveness for the Kingdom. Also lift up the matching gift offer: I must exhort you to seek the Lord if you are one to help us do what, at this moment seems impossible, to purchase property without incurring debt . The mission of CTF is accomplished month in and month out with the exceeding blessings of churches, family members, and individuals that support us. The Lord’s faithfulness through all these years is unmistakable and we look forward to seeing Him do more of the impossible. May the Lord bless, keep, and challenge you for His Kingdom!
The First Prayer In Congress by T.H. Matteson, 1848